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An overall view on the competitive pattern of China's lithium battery industry in 2019
1. Lithium battery industry status: the demand for lithium battery consumption is saturated, and the power lithium battery drives the whole industry

        Lithium-ion batteries are rechargeable batteries that work by moving lithium ions between the positive and negative poles.In the process of charging and discharging, Li+ is embedded and de-embedded back and forth between the two electrodes. In rechargeable batteries, Li+ is de-embedded from the positive electrode and embedded into the negative electrode through electrolyte. The negative electrode is in a lithium rich state.When discharging, the opposite is true.Generally, batteries containing lithium as the electrode are representative of modern high-performance batteries.
        Lithium ion battery was born in the 1970 s, gradually to adopt more green environmental protection, better performance of positive/negative material direction of research and development, in the 90 s, SONY as the first commercial lithium-ion battery as well as the rapid development of electronic products, the demand for high power, high energy density batteries, lithium ion battery has become the mainstream.
        Upstream raw materials mainly include nickel cobalt manganese lithium-ion batteries, lithium and graphite mine, which constitute anode materials, electrolyte and electrode substrate, diaphragm, etc;The middle is the anode materials and electrolyte, electrode base material, after the diaphragm assembly into batteries manufacturing and packaging;Downstream is the application field of lithium-ion batteries.
        In the past five years, lithium batteries have developed rapidly in the field of downstream consumer goods, among which the increasing popularity of laptops and mobile phones is the reason for the rapid growth of lithium battery consumption, which is already saturated.In the future, with the development of the global new energy industry, electric vehicles will gradually become the largest demand industry for lithium batteries. Therefore, power lithium batteries will become a concentrated area for the growth of lithium battery industry.
        As new energy passenger vehicles become the main engine driving the demand for lithium batteries and the marketization degree of new energy vehicles is improved, according to the statistics of power battery application branch of China chemical and physical power supply industry association, the total installed capacity of lithium batteries in China reached 56.89GWh and the shipment was 65GWh in 2018.

2. Global lithium battery industry competition pattern: China, Japan and South Korea exert their best efforts

        At present, the global lithium battery industry presents the pattern of China, Japan and South Korea.According to the global lithium-ion battery shipment data for january-september 2018 released by SNE Research, the latest data shows that panasonic of Japan is the world's largest manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries, with shipments reaching 13.38GWh, followed by ningde times.Compared with the TOP10 power lithium battery shipments of global lithium battery companies from January to September 2018 and the TOP10 power lithium battery shipments of global lithium battery companies that are not included in the calculation of installed electric vehicles in China, the difference is large.Due to the adjustment of China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy at the beginning of 2016, LG chem and other foreign battery companies failed to enter the power battery catalog and were excluded from the mainstream market.
        Combining the two rankings, the global and Chinese lithium battery industry competitive echelons are as follows: Japan's three international giants panasonic, LG chem and samsung SDI;The first tier of the domestic team is ningde times and byd.
        1 layout process
        Panasonic of Japan began to develop lithium batteries in 1994, and entered the lithium battery consumption market in 1998 to provide cylindrical batteries for notebook computers. In 2008, panasonic began to cooperate with tesla, the world's largest electric vehicle company, and built a super battery factory in 2014, which is the world's largest lithium battery company.Korean companies LG chem and samsung SDI both started to develop lithium battery industries in 1999, and both focus on providing complete solutions for the lithium battery industry.
        2 operating conditions
        In recent years, the battery business revenue of the three lithium battery giants showed a trend of increasing year by year. The revenue of panasonic in Japan stabilized at about 30 billion yuan, while the sales of energy solutions (battery business revenue) of samsung SDI increased significantly year-on-year.
        3 production capacity and products
        In terms of capacity, panasonic of Japan is currently building seven lithium-ion power battery plants in Japan, the United States and the communist party of China, which are expected to reach 52GWh by 2020.Samsung SDI has plants for car batteries in South Korea, China and Hungary.LG chem operates four battery plants in South Korea, China, Poland and the us and plans to have a capacity of 110GWh a year by 2020.
        From the product situation, panasonic's technical route is mainly cylindrical, which is different from samsung SDI's square.In terms of material supply system, panasonic strictly controls the source of suppliers, while samsung SDI adopts an open model.LG chem mainly supplies soft cladding, positive electrode materials independently and diaphragm technology externally.In addition, panasonic cooperates with tesla and is a dedicated battery cell supplier for tesla's electric vehicles.

3. Competition pattern of lithium battery industry in China: the industry reshuffle is fierce and focuses on leading companies

        In 2018, the number of lithium battery companies in China was 93, a decline compared with 2017. The industry reshuffle pattern was severe, and the industry chain companies were faced with a screening of "big waves".
At present, 95% of enterprises in the lithium battery industry in China are small and medium-sized enterprises with small scale and low technical level, mainly producing middle and low-end lithium battery products.The notice on adjusting and improving financial support policies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, which came into effect in June 2018, has indicated higher requirements for the energy density of new energy vehicle batteries through subsidy measures, and the overcapacity of low-end lithium batteries has been gradually eliminated.
        Further comparison in 2017-2018 of China's power lithium battery CR5 and CR10 installed capacity, the concentration of power lithium battery market in China is very high, in 2018 China's power lithium battery CR5 is 74%, CR10 reached 83%, while CR20 is as high as 92%, which means that the ranking after 20 power lithium battery company actually has been marginalized.
Loading condition
        Specifically analyzing the enterprise structure of lithium battery industry in 2018, ningde times accounted for 41.19%, and the installed capacity reached 23.43gwh, with a year-on-year growth of 123%.Second place went to byd, accounting for 20.09%, with 11.43gwh installed, up 102.43% year on year.In third place was guoxon gaoke (5.4%), with 3.07GWh installed.The competition among high-end products in lithium battery industry in China is mainly concentrated between only a few domestic enterprises and foreign enterprises, which belongs to the monopoly competition pattern.As China's policy puts forward higher requirements for lithium battery products, the market share will be further concentrated to the head enterprises.
        1 operation
        In terms of revenue, China's four listed lithium battery companies have shown a trend of steady growth. As byd's business also includes sales of new energy vehicles, its revenue and r&d expenditure are far higher than those of the other three companies.
        In terms of net profit, ningde times's net profit maintained a high growth rate every year, while byd and guoxuan gaoke both showed a small decline in 2017.It is worth noting that the gross profit margin of sales of the four enterprises all showed a decline in 2017, mainly due to the fact that Chinese government subsidies for new energy vehicles are declining at an annual rate of 30%, thus squeezing the profit margins of lithium battery companies.

4 lithium battery industry competition prospects: foreign investment into the Chinese market, oligopoly pattern will be further strengthened

        As the industrialization of new energy vehicles gradually thorough, countries around the world and the key enterprises are increasing development power batteries, lithium-ion battery industry based on new materials and structure of the ratio can power battery technology already became the various countries' competition, vigorously promote the current vehicle power battery safety, life, low temperature characteristics, cost reduction is the direction of the industrial technology development.
        In the United States, Japan, Europe and South Korea and other countries/regions of science and technology planning and key enterprises in the strategic planning often talks about a new architecture for power battery technology, focusing on high performance battery materials, high performance lithium ion power battery (committed to improve life, energy density and safety), high performance battery pack, battery management system, thermal management, standard system, the next generation of lithium ion power battery and lithium battery, battery cascade utilization and recovery technology, battery manufacturing technology and equipment, etc.
        China's lithium battery industry has developed rapidly from scratch and from small to large. With the key support of national science and technology projects, China's lithium battery industry has made significant progress in the research of key technologies, key materials and products in the field of power batteries.Although there is still a certain gap between the technology and products of small capacity power lithium battery and those of foreign countries, the development of large capacity power lithium battery industry has been in the international leading level.The characteristics of the single power battery have been suitable for application.The power lithium battery industry has entered a key stage of industrialization construction and promotion application. Judging from the layout of listed lithium battery enterprises in China in 2018, ningde times has cooperated with foreign automobile enterprises and built battery production bases in Germany.Byd and guoxuan gaoke have launched lithium-ion battery projects in chongqing and Qingdao, respectively.
        It is worth noting that in 2018, foreign-funded lithium battery enterprises obtained the license to operate in China for the first time, and LG chem and other foreign-funded enterprises successively set up plants to expand capacity. The entry of foreign capital may lead to fierce competition in China's lithium battery power battery field.
        According to a research report released by ubs, the global lithium battery industry's demand for power batteries will increase from 93GWh in 2018 to 973GWh in 2025.It is expected that by 2021, panasonic, LG chem and ningde times of Japan will all have more than 50GWh capacity, which is the absolute source of increment, and the oligopoly of the global battery market will be further strengthened in the future.


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